基本信息
陶福禄  男  博导  中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
电子邮件: taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn
通信地址: 本所
邮政编码: 100101
部门/实验室:区域环境与生态信息研究室

招生信息

招生专业:

   生态学

招生方向:

全球变化与区域生态响应和适应,农林生态气象

招生方向
生态学

教育背景

1996-09--1999-07   中国科学院生态环境研究中心   理学博士
学历
博士研究生
学位
1999年 中国科学院生态环境研究中心获生态学博士学位
出国学习工作
2001-2008年, 日本农业环境技术研究所和日本筑波大学特别研究员
2012年9-11月, 荷兰瓦赫宁根大学

工作经历

2001-2008年 日本农业环境技术研究所和日本筑波大学特别研究员
2008年- 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中科院"百人计划"入选者
社会兼职
   

教授课程

   

专利与奖励

   
奖励信息
(1) 国际START青年科学家奖, 院级, 2001
专利成果
   

出版信息

发表论文:


1.    Tao F., Zhang Z., Zhang S., Reimund P. Rötter.2016. Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades.Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-015-0920-0.

2.    Bai H., Tao, F., Xiao D., Liu F., Zhang H. 2016. Attribution of yield change for rice-wheat rotation system in China to climate change, cultivars and agronomic management in the past three decades. Climate Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1579-8.

3.    Fulu Tao, Zhao Zhang, Shuai Zhang, Reimund P. Rötter, Wenjiao Shi, Dengpan Xiao, Yujie Liu, Meng Wang, Fengshan Liu, He Zhang. 2016. Historical data provide new insights into response and adaptation of maize production systems to climate change/variability in China, Field Crops Research, 185, 1-11.

4.    Zhang H, Tao F*., Xiao, D., Shi, W., Liu, F., Zhang, S., Liu, Y., Wang, M., Bai, H. 2015.Contributions of climate, varieties and agronomic management to rice yield change in the past three decades in China. Frontiers of Earth Science.      

5.    Shuai J., Zhang, Z., Tao, F.*, Shi, P. 2016. How ENSO affects maize yields in China: understanding the impact mechanisms using a process-based crop model. Int. J. Climatol. 424-438.

6.    Xiao, D., Qi, Y., Shen,Y., Tao, F*., Moiwo, J.P., Liu, J., Wang, R., Zhang, H., Liu, F. 2015. Impact of warming climate and cultivar change on maize phenology in the last three decades in North China Plain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-015-1450-x

7.    Xiao D., Tao F. Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981–2009, Int J Biometeorol DOI 10.1007/s00484-015-1104-9.

8.    Liu F., Tao F*, Liu J. et al. 2016. ffects of land use/cover change on land surface 

energy partitioning and climate in northeast China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 123, 141-150.

2015

9.    Fulu Tao, Zhao Zhang, Shuai Zhang, Reimund P. Rötter, 2015. Heat stress impacts on wheat growth and yield were reduced in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades, European Journal of Agronomy, Volume 71, 44-52.

10. Fulu Tao, Shuai Zhang, Zhao Zhang, Reimund P. Rötter, 2015. Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China, Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 208, 12-20.

11. Asseng, S, et al. 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change. 5, 143-147.

12. Li T. et al., 2015. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions. Global Change Biology, 21, 1328-1341.

13. Moiwo JP, Tao F*. 2015. Contributions of precipitation, irrigation and soil water to evapotranspiration in (semi)-arid regions. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 1079-1089.

14. Xiao D, J. P. Moiwo, F. Tao*, Y. Yang, Y. Shen, Q. Xu, J. Liu, H. Zhang, F. Liu. 2015. Spatiotemporal variability of winter wheat phenology in response to weather and climate variability in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change. 20, 1191-1202.

2014

15. Pierre. et al., 2014. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: Many models are better than one. Global Change Biology, 21, 911-925.

16. Tao Fulu, Zhang Shuai, Zhang Zhao and Rötter Reimund P. 2014.Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift. Global Change Biology, 20, 3686-3699.

17. Moiwo JP, Tao F*. 2014. Evidence of Land-use Controlled Water Storage Depletion in Hai River Basin, North China. Water Resource Management. 28, 4733-4746.

18. Shi Wenjiao, Tao F*. 2014. Vulnerability of African Maize Yield to Climate Change and Variability during 1961-2010. Food Security, 6, 471-481.

19. Shi W., Tao F*. Spatio-temporal Distributions of Climate Disasters and the Response of Wheat Yields in China from 1983 to 2008. Natural Hazards, 74, 569-583.

20. Shi W, Tao F, Liu J, Xu X, Kuang W, Dong J, Shi X. 2014. Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s? Climatic Change, 124, 163-177.

21. Meng Wang, Fulu Tao*Wenjiao Shi. 2014. Corn Yield Forecasting on the Northeast China Using Remotely Sensed Spectral Indices and Crop Phenology Metrics. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13, 1538-1545.

22. Simona et al., 2014. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global Change Biology, 202301-2320.

23. Zhang Z, Wang P., Chen Y., Zhang S., Tao F*, Liu X. 2014. Spatial pattern and decadal change of agro-meterological disasters in the main wheat production area of China during 1991-2009. J. Geogr. Sci. 24(3), 387–396.

24. Tao F,*, Z Zhang, D Xiao, S. Zhang, RP Rötter, W Shi , Y Liu, M Wang, F Liu, H Zhang. 2014. Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981-2009. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 189–190, 91–104.

25. Zhang S, Tao F*, Zhang Z. 2014. Rice reproductive growth duration increased despite of negative impacts of climate warming across China during 1981–2009. Eur. J. Agron. 5470-83.

26. Xiao D, Tao F*, 2014. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. Eur. J. Agron. 52, 112-122.

27. Moiwo JP, Tao F*. 2014. Groundwater recharges and discharge analysis for land use conditions suitable for the hydrology and ecology of semiarid regions. Hydrology Research. 45, 4-5: 563–574.

28. Shi W., Tao, F.*, Liu, J. 2014. Regional Temperature Change over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China: the Roles of Irrigation versus Urbanization. International Journal of Climatology34, 1181-1195.

2013

29. Shuai J, Zhang Z, Sun DZ, Tao F, Shi P. 2013. ENSO, climate variability and crop yields in China. Climate research. 58,133-148.

30. Liu Y, Tao F*, Luo Y, Ma J. 2013. Case study of developing an integrated water and nitrogen scheme for agricultural systems on the North China Plain. Int. Agrophys., 2013, 27, 425-437.

31. Tao, F., Zhang,Z., Shi,W. Liu,Y. Xiao,D., Zhang,S., Zhu,Z., Wang, M.,Liu F. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biology. 2013, 19, 3200–3209.

32. Asseng, S. et al., 2013. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate change. 3, 827–832

33. Qin, Y., Liu J., Shi W., Tao F., Yan H. 2013. Spatial-temporal changes of cropland and climate potential productivity in northern China during 1990–2010. Food security, 5, 499– 512.

34. Tao, F., Zhang, SZhang Z. 2013. Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes. Regional Environmental Change, 13, 743–759.

35. Moiwo Juana Paul, Tao F.*, Lu Wenxi. 2013.Analysis of satellite-based and in situ hydro-climatic data depicts water storage depletion in North China Region. Hydrological Processes, 27, 1011-1020.

36. Tao F., Zhao Zhang. 2013. Climate Change, High Temperature Stress, Rice Productivity and Water Use in Eastern China: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013, 52, 531–551.

37. Shi, W., Tao F., Zhang Zhao. 2013. A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields. J. Geogr. Sci. 23, 567-576.

38. Shi Wenjiao, Tao F.*, Liu Jiyuan. 2013. Changes in cropland and water resources in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China and the implications for grain production. Food Security, 5, 6982.

39. Xiao Dengpan, Tao F.*, Liu Yujie, Shi Wenjiao, et al., 2013. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009. International Journal of Biometeorology.57, 275-285.

40. Tao F., Zhao Zhang. 2013. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170146-166.

41. Zhang Shuai, Tao F.*. 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. European Journal of Agronomy, 45, 167-176.

42. Liu Yujie, F. Tao*. 2013. Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China for Global Mean Temperature Changes of 1, 2, and 3. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52, 130–146.

2012

43. Tao F., Zhang Shuai, Zhang Zhao. 2012. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology inChinaunder the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. European Journal of Agronomy, 43, 201-212.

44. Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Zhang, S., Zhu, Z., & Shi, W. 2012. Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980  in China. Climate Research, 54, 233-247.

45. Moiwo Juana Paul, Lu Wenxi, Tao F*. 2012. GRACE, GLDAS and measured groundwater data products show water storage loss in Western Jilin, China. Water Science and Technology, 65(9):1606-1614.

46. Liu Yujie, Tao F.*. 2012. Probabilistic change and uncertainty analysis of wheat biomass for global mean temperature changes of 1, 2, and 3. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 22: 1002-1012.

2011

47. Moiwo, J.P., Tao, F*., Liu. W. 2011.Estimating soil moisture storage change using quasi-terrestrial water balance method. Agricultural Water Management, 102, 25–34.

48. Moiwo, J.P., Yang, Y., Tao, F., Lu, W., Han, S. 2011.Water storage change in the Himalayas from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and an empirical climate model. Water Resources Research, 47, no. 7.

49. Tao F., Z. Zhang. 2011. Dynamic Response of Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle and Plant Water Stress to Climate Change in China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 371-393, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1314.1

50. Tao, F., Z. Zhang. 2011. Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use in China. Climatic Change, 105,409-432

51. Tao F., Z. Zhang, M. Yokozawa. 2011. Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China. Regional Environmental Change 11: S41–S48.

52. Dong, J.,J. Liu,H. Yan,F. Tao,W. Kuang. 2011.Spatio-temporal pattern and rationality of land reclamation and cropland abandonment in mid-eastern Inner Mongolia of China in 1990–2005.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 179/1-4(137-53), 1573-2959

53. Dong, J., Tao, F*., & Zhang, G. 2011. Trends and variation in vegetation greenness related to geographic controls in middle and eastern Inner Mongolia, China. Environmental Earth Sciences, 62, 245-256.

2010

54. Tao F., Z. Zhang. 2010. Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change in China. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: G03003, doi:10.1029/2009JG001062.

55.  Tao F., Z. Zhang. 2010.Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: Quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. European Journal of Agronomy, 33, 103-116.

2009

56. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2009. Climate change, land use change, andChinas food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective. Climatic Change. 93:433445. 

57. Tao F., Z. Zhang, J. Liu, M. Yokozawa. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149: 1266-1278.

58. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Process-based Model Development, Optimization, and Uncertainties Analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 149, 831850.

59. Dong, J., J. Liu, F. Tao, X. Xu, J. Wang. 2009. Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature inChinaand the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000. Climate Research 40, 3748. 

2008

60. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, J. Liu, Z. Zhang. 2008. Climate-crop yield relationships at province scale inChinaand the impacts of recent climate trend. Climate Research, 38, 8394. 

61. Tao, F., Y. Hayashi, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto. 2008. Global warming, rice production and water use inChina: developing a probabilistic assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94110.

62. Tao, F., Yokozawa, M., Zhang, Z., Hayashi, Y., Ishigooka, Y. 2008. Land surface phenology dynamics and climate variation in the North East China Transect (NECT), 19822000. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 29, 54615478. 

Before 2008

63. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Y. Xu, Y. Hayashi, Z. Zhang. 2006. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops inChina, 19812000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 138, 8292.

64. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, Y. Xu, Y. Hayashi. 2005. Remote Sensing of Crop Production inChinaby Production Efficiency Models: Models Comparisons, Estimates and Uncertainties. Ecological Modelling, 183, 385396.

65. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. 2005. A Perspective on Water Resources inChina: Interactions between Climate Change and Soil Degradation. Climatic Change, 68, 169197. 

66. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, Y. Hayashi, H. Grassl, C. Fu. Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with East Asia monsoon and EL NiÑo southern oscillation. Climate Research. 2004, 28: 2330. 

67. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2003, 118:251-261.

68. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. Future climate change, the agricultural water resources, and agricultural production in China. Agricultural Ecosystem & Environment. 2003, 95:203215.

69. Tao, F., M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. Terrestrial water budget and the impacts of climate change. Ambio. 2003, 32(4): 295301.

70. Tao, F., Y. Hayashi, E. Lin. Soil vulnerability and sensitivity to acid deposition in China. Water, Air and Soil Pollution. 2002, 140: 247260.

71. Tao, F., Feng Zongwei. Critical Loads of acid deposition for ecosystems in South ChinaDerived by a new method. Water, Air and Soil Pollution. 2001, 130: 11871192.

72. Tao, F., Feng Zongwei. Critical loads of SO2 dry deposition for ecosystems in South China and theirs exceedance. Water, Air and Soil Pollution. 2000, 124: 429438.

73. Tao, F., Feng Zongwei. Terrestrial ecosystem sensitivity to acid deposition in South China. Water, Air and Soil Pollution. 2000, 118: 231243.

74. Feng Zongwei, Tao F. Effects of acid deposition on forests in South China. J. of Environ. Sci. 1998, 10: 505509.



科研活动

主持和参加科技部“973”项目、中科院“百人计划”项目、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项、国家基金委面上项目等。

国际期刊European Journal Agronomy 和 Regional environmental change编委

近年来,收集整理多源资料,建立了农业多要素多尺度长期历史数据库,发展了系列先进的理论方法和模型系统,在我国农业耕作系统、农业水资源和农业生产对季节气候变率和长期气候变化响应的事实、机制、规律及时空分异规律等方面有多项创新成果。针对困扰当前气候变化影响预测研究中的不确定性问题,发展了MCWLA系列作物模型和超集合概率预测的理论方法,研发了新一代气候变化影响评价工具“区域农业对气候变化响应和适应的超集合预测系统”,在大尺度作物模型的发展和气候变化影响评价研究的不确定问题上取得重要突破,推动气候变化影响研究从传统的确定性预测发展到集合概率预测。目前已在国内外核心期刊发表论文100余篇,其中SCI核心期刊论文70余篇。研究论文被欧洲农学会作为亮点报道, 被《科学》杂志新闻焦点报道(Science 2013,339,644-645), 被IPCC评价报告多次引用和高度评价。

科研项目
( 1 ) 长江中下游地区高温胁迫对水稻生产过程的影响机理、风险及调控对, 主持, 国家级, 2016-01--2020-12
( 2 ) 华北平原麦玉轮作系统对气候变化响应和适应过程机理及适应模式定量, 主持, 国家级, 2016-01--2019-12
参与会议
   

合作情况

   
项目协作单位
   

指导学生

已指导学生

张帅  博士研究生  071012-生态学  

肖登攀  博士研究生  071012-生态学  

王猛  博士研究生  071012-生态学  

刘凤山  博士研究生  071012-生态学  

张贺  博士研究生  071012-生态学  

现指导学生

柏会子  博士研究生  071300-生态学  

罗开盛  博士研究生  071300-生态学  

翟然  博士研究生  071300-生态学