DAI Junhu, Ph. D., Prof. (full) 
Gender: Male
Nationality: Chinese
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,
China Phenology Network,
Chinese Academy of Sciences
11 A Anwai Datun Road, Chaoyang District,
Beijing, 100101, P. R. China
Tel: +86-10-64889066; Fax: +86-10-64872274
E-mail: daijh@igsnrr.ac.cn; daijh101@gmail.com 

Research Areas and Resume

Prof. Dai is interested in a variety of topics in the field of ecological and geographical studies. He is professor in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Reseach, director of Department of Integrated Physical Geography, and vice-director of China Phenological Observation Network(CPON). His main research interests focus on: plant phenology and phenological changes in China, plant geography with emphasis on regional plants flora investigations, vegetation and landscape ecology mainly concern about regional vegetation distribution patterns and the structure of landscape, global climatic change and response of terrestrial ecosystems.



Education

  1. Sep. 1996 ~ Jul. 1999: Ph. D., Majoring in ecology, mainly studied landscape and vegetation ecology, topic of doctoral thesis is Relationship between Vegetation Changes on Timberline Ecotone on Some Major Mountains in North China and Regional Climate Change During the Last 400 Years, Peking University, Beijing 

  2. Sep. 1993 ~ Jul. 1996: M. S., Majoring in ecological geography, Northwestern University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 

  3. Sep. 1987 ~ Jul. 1991: B. S., majoring in physical geography, Northwestern University, Xi’an, Shaanxi Province 

Experiences

Work Experience
  1. Dec. 2013~Present: Professor in Phyiscal Geography at Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

  2. Oct. 2001 ~ Nov. 2013: Associate Professor in Physical Geography at Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences 

  3. Nov. 2007 ~ Mar. 2008: Visiting scientist at Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, USA 

  4. Oct. 1999 ~ Oct. 2001: Postdoctor in the Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Application of remotely sensed data and GIS in geography and vegetation ecology, Peking University, Beijing 

  5. Mar. 1998 ~ May, 1998: Assistant to undergraduate course - Plant Geography, Peking University, Beijing 

Teaching Experience

Participitating in Postgraduate Courses: (1) Physical Geography; (2) Modern Physical Geography; (3) Biogeography and vegetation geography.

Social Appointments

2019-04-12 - present, The 6th Education Committee of Ecological Society of China, member

2018-12-24 - present, China Ecological Civilization Research and Promotion Association, member of a council

2018-08-16 - present, Advances in Climate Change Research, editorial board member

2018-08-14 - present, PlosOne, editorial board member

2017-12-16 - present, Ecological Society of Beijing, member of a council

2017-03-09 - present, Global Change Data and Discovery, editorial board member

2015-01-12 - present, Resources Science (in Chinese), editorial board member

2014-10-11-2018-09-30, International Society of Biometeorology, Councilor of Executive Board

2014-09-01 - present, International Journal of Biometeorology, editorial advisory board member

2014-08-12 - present, Scientific Report, editorial board member


Publications

   
Papers

1. Dai J*, Zhu M, Mao W, Liu R, Wang H, Alatalo JM, Tao Z, Ge Q. 2021. Divergent changes of the elevational synchronicity in vegetation spring phenology in North China from 2001 to 2017 in connection with variations in chilling. International Journal of Climatology. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7170

2. Ferrarini A, Bai Y, Dai J, Alatalo J M. A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic, biotic, and environmental cofiltering. Conservation Biology. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13797

3. Liu Y, Fang X, Dai J, Wang H, Tao Z. 2021. Could phenological records from Chinese poems of the Tang and Song dynasties (618–1279CE) be reliable evidence of past climate changes? Climate of the Past. 17 (2):929-950. doi:10.5194/cp-17-929-2021

4. Alatalo, J. M., A. K. Jägerbrand, J. Dai, M. D. Mollazehi, A.-S. G. Abdel-Salam, R. Pandey, and U. Molau. 2021. Effects of ambient climate and three warming treatments on fruit production in an alpine, subarctic meadow community. American Journal of Botany. 108(3): 1–12.

5. Yan H, Wang S, Dai J, Wang J, Chen J, Shugart HH. 2021. Forest Greening Increases Land Surface Albedo During the Main Growing Period Between 2002 and 2019 in China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 126 (6):e2020JD033582.

6. Tao, Z.; Ge, Q.; Wang, H.; Dai, J.*, 2021. The important role of soil moisture in controlling autumn phenology of herbaceous plants in the Inner Mongolian steppe. Land Degradation & Development. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.3827.

7. Dai J*, Fdez-Arroyabe P, Sheridan SC. 2019. Foreword for IJB Special Issue on Asian Biometeorology. International Journal of Biometeorology. 63 (5):563-568. doi:10.1007/s00484-019-01725-x

8. Ferrarini A, Dai J, Bai Y, Alatalo JM. 2019. Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change. Science of The Total Environment. 671:1086-1093. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.353

9. Yang J, Dong J, Xiao X, Dai J, Wu C, Xia J, Zhao G, Zhao M, Li Z, Zhang Y, Ge Q. 2019. Divergent shifts in peak photosynthesis timing of temperate and alpine grasslands in China. Remote Sensing of Environment. 233:111395. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111395

10. Huang W, Ge Q, Wang H, Dai J. 2019. Effects of multiple climate change factors on the spring phenology of herbaceous plants in Inner Mongolia, China: Evidence from ground observation and controlled experiments. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.6131

11. Tao Z, Xu Y, Dai J*, Wang H* .2019. Divergent Response of Leaf Coloring Seasons to Temperature Change in Northern China over the Past 50 Years. Advances in Meteorology. 2019:10. doi:10.1155/2019/2706803

12. Qiu Y, Tao S, Yun X, Du W, Shen G, Lu C, Yu X, Cheng H, Ma J, Xue B, Tao J, Dai J, Ge Q. 2019. Indoor PM2.5 Profiling with a Novel Side-Scatter Indoor Lidar. Environmental Science & Technology Letters. 6 (10):612-616. doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.9b00544

13. Piao S, Liu Q, Chen A, Janssens IA, Fu Y, Dai J, Liu L, Lian X, Shen M, Zhu X. 2019. Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges. Global Change Biology. 25 (6):1922-1940. doi:10.1111/gcb.14619

14. Tao, Z., Dai, J*., Wang, H., Huang, W., & Ge, Q. 2019. Spatiotemporal changes in the bud-burst date of herbaceous plants in Inner Mongolia grassland. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 29(12), 2122-2138. doi:10.1007/s11442-019-1708-9

15. Dai Junhu*, Mengyao Zhu, Huanjiong Wang, Quansheng Ge. 2018. Phenophase shifts across elevations on major mountains in North China. Regional Problems. 21(3(1): 82-88

16. Wang Li, Yu Haiying, Zhang Qiang*, Xu Yunjia, Tao Zexing, Alatalo Juha, Dai Junhu*. 2018. Responses of aboveground biomass of alpine grasslands to climate changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 28(12): 1953-1964.

17. Alessandro Ferrarini,Mohammed Alsafran, Junhu Dai, Juha Alatalo. 2018. Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9.

18. Dai Junhu*, Xu Yunjia, Wang Huanjiong, Alatalo Juha, Tao Zexing, Ge Quansheng. 2017. Variations in the temperature sensitivity of spring leaf phenology from 1978 to 2014 in Mudanjiang, China. International Journal of Biometeorology. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1489-8

19. Tao Zexing, Wang Huanjiong, Dai Junhu*, Alatalo Juha, Ge Quansheng⁎. Modeling spatiotemporal variations in leaf coloring date of three tree species across China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.034

20. Wang Huanjiong, Zhong, S., Tao Z., Dai Junhu*. and Ge Quansheng*, 2017. Changes in flowering phenology of woody plants from 1963 to 2014 in North China. International Journal of Biometeorology. doi:10.1007/s00484-017-1377-2.

21. Tao Zexing, Wang Huanjiong, Liu Yachen, Xu Yunjia, and Dai Junhu*. 2017. Phenological response of different vegetation types to temperature and precipitation variations in northern China during 1982–2012. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 38,11,3236-3252.

22. Wang Huanjiong,Rutishauser This, Tao Zexing,Zhong Shuying, Ge Quansheng*, Dai Junhu*. 2017. Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run. International Journal of Biometeorology. 61,2,287-292.

23. Wu Wenxiang, Dai Junhu, Zhou Yang, and Ge Quansheng. 2017. Comment on "Outburst flood at 1920 BCE supports historicity of China’s Great Flood and the Xia dynasty". Science, 355, 1382-1382

24. Ge Q, Dai Junhu, Cui H, Wang H. Spatiotemporal variability in start and end of growing season in China related to climate variability. Remote Sensing, 2016, 8: 433.

25. Liu Y, Dai Junhu*, Wang H, et al. Phenological records in Guanzhong Area in central China between 600 and 902 AD as proxy for winter half-year temperature reconstruction, 2016, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 59(9): 1847-1853.

26. Zheng F, Tao Z, Liu Y, Xu Y, Dai Junhu*, Ge Q*. Variation of main phenophases in phenological calendar in East China and their response to climate change. Advances in Meteorology, 2016, 2016: 1-8.

27. Wang H, Dai J, Zheng J, Ge Q. 2015. Temperature sensitivity of plant phenology in temperate and subtropical regions of China from 1850 to 2009. International Journal of Climatology. 35:913-922

28. Wang H, Ge Q, Dai J*, Tao Z. 2015. Geographical pattern in first bloom variability and its relation to temperature sensitivity in the USA and China. International Journal of Biometeorology. 59:961-969

29. Wang H, Ge Q, Rutishauser T, Dai Y, Dai J*. 2015. Parameterization of temperature sensitivity of spring phenology and its application in explaining diverse phenological responses to temperature change. Scientific Reports. 5: 8833 (6 pages)

30. Ge Q, Wang H, Rutishauser T, Dai J*. 2015. Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biology. 21:265-274.

31. Tao Z, Ge Q, Wang H, Dai J*. 2015. Phenological basis of determining tourism seasons for ornamental plants in central and eastern China. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 25(11) :1343-1356.

32. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong, and Ge Quansheng*. 2014. Characteristics of Spring Phenological Changes in China over the Past 50 Years. Advances in Meteorology. Article ID 843568, 8 pages. doi:10.1155/2014/843568.

33. Huanjiong Wang, Junhu Dai, Jingyun Zheng and Quansheng Ge*. 2014. Temperature sensitivity of plant phenology in temperate and subtropical regions of China from 1850 to 2009. International Journal of Climatology. 35(6): 913–922.

34. Huanjiong Wang, Junhu Dai*, and Quansheng Ge*. 2014. Comparison of Satellite and Ground-Based Phenology in China’s Temperate Monsoon Area. Advances in Meteorology. Article ID 474876, 10 pages. doi:10.1155/2014/474876.

35. Ge Quansheng, Wang Huanjiong*, Zheng Jingyun, This Rutishauser, and Dai Junhu*. 2014. A 170-year spring phenogy index of plants in eastern China. Journal of Geophysical Research (Biogeosciences). 119(4): 301-311.

36. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong, and Ge Quansheng. 2014. The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China. International Journal of Biometeorology. 58(4): 521-528.

37. Ge Quansheng, Wang Huanjiong, and Dai Junhu*. 2014. Simulating changes in the leaf unfolding time of 20 plant species in China over the twenty-first century. International Journal of Biometeorology. 58(4): 473-484.

38. Guo Liang, Dai Junhu, Ranjitkar Sailesh, Yu Haiying, Xu Jianchu, and Luedeling Eike. 2014. Chilling and heat requirements for flowering in temperate fruit trees. International Journal of Biometeorology. 58(6): 1195-1206.

39. Ge Quansheng, Wang Huanjiong, Dai Junhu*. Shifts in spring phenophases, frost events and frost risks for woody plants in temperate China. Climate Research. 2013, 57: 249-258(DOI: 10.3354/cr01182.)

40. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong, and Ge Quansheng. 2013. Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi'an, China. International Journal of Biometeorology. 57: 749-758.

41. Dai Junhu*, Ge Quansheng, Xiao Shufang, Wang Mengmai, et al. 2009. Wet-dry changes in the borderland of Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia from 1208 to 1369 based on historical records. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 19(6): 750-764.

42. Ge Qusheng, Dai Junhu*, Zheng Jingyun et al. 2011. Advances in first bloom dates and increased occurrences of yearly second blooms in eastern China since the 1960s: further phenological evidence of climate warming. Ecological Research. 26(4): 713-723. 

43. Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu*, He Fanneng et al. 2008. Land use changes and their relations with carbon cycles over the past 300a in China. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences. 51(6): 871-884.

44. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong and Ge Quansheng. 2013. The decreasing spring frost risks during the flowering period for woody plants in temperate area of eastern China over past 50 years. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 23(4): 641-652.

45. Wang Huanjiong, Dai Junhu*, Ge Quansheng. 2012. The spatiotemporal characteristics of spring phenophase changes of Fraxinus chinensis in China from 1952 to 2007. Science China Earth Sciences (Science in China: Series D Earth Sciences). 55(6): 991-1000.

46. Bai Jie, Quansheng Ge, and Dai Junhu*, 2011: The response of first flowering dates to abrupt climate change in Beijing. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28(3): 564-572.

47. Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu*. 2005. Farming and forestry land use changes in China and their driving forces from 1900 to 1980. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences. 48(10): 1747-1757.

48. Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu*, He Fanneng et al. 2004. Spatiotemporal dynamics of reclamation and cultivation and its driving factors in parts of China during the last three centuries. Progress in Natural Science. 14(7): 605-608.

49. Guo Liang, Dai Junhu, Ranjitkar Sailesh, Xu Jianchu, Luedeling Eike. 2013. Response of chestnut phenology in China to climate variation and change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 180: 164-172.

50. Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu, Liu Jun, and Zhong Shuying. 2013. The effect of climate change on the fall foliage vacation in China. Tourism Management. 38: 80-84.

51. Luedeling Eike, Guo Liang, Dai Junhu, Leslie Charles & Blanke Michael M. 2013. Differential responses of trees to temperature variation during the chilling and forcing phases. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 181: 33-42.

52. Zhang Xuezhen, Dai Junhu, Ge Quansheng*. 2013. Variation in vegetation greenness in spring across eastern China during 1982–2006. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 2013, 23(1): 45-56.

Books
  1. Dai Junhu, Ding M. & Fang Jingyun. Greenhouse Effect and its Ecological Impacts. Beijing: Chinese Environmental Sciences Press. 2001. 

  2. Cui Haiting, Liu Hongyan, and Dai Junhu. Mountain Ecology and Alpine Timberline Research. Beijing: Science Press. 2005 

  3. Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu, and He Fanneng. 2007. Historical Land Use and Land Cover Changes in China and their Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Distributions. Beijing: Science Press

[Note] All were published in Chinese.

Conferences

1. Wang Huanjiong, Ge Guansheng, Dai Junhu, Zheng Jingyun. 2013. A 170-year spring phenogy index of plants in eastern China. 13th Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society and 11th European Conference on Application of Meteorology. Sept. 9-13, 2013, Reading, UK
2. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong, and Wang Huanjiong. 2013. Shift of growing season length in China from satellite and ground-based data. 13th Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society and 11th European Conference on Application of Meteorology. Sept. 9-13, 2013, Reading, UK
3. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong and Ge Quansheng. 2012. Spatial-temporal and interspecific variation of phenological responses to climate change in China. Phenology 2012 Conference-Future climate & the living earth. Sept. 10-13, 2012, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA
4. Wang Huanjiong, Dai Junhu* and Ge Quansheng.2012. The possible change for leaf unfolding time of 20 plant species during the 21st century in China. Phenology 2012 Conference-Future climate & the living earth. Sept. 10-13, 2012, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA
5. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong, and Ge Quansheng. Spatial-temporal changes of spring phenophase changes in China over the past half century. 19th International Congress of Biometeorology. Dec. 4-8, 2011, The University of Auckland, New Zealand
6. Dai Junhu, Wang Huanjiong and Ge Quansheng. 2010. Changes of spring phenophases in cities of China and spatial differences. Urban Biodiversity & Design (URBIO) Conference on Biological Diversity in towns and cities International Conference.May, 18-22, 2010, Nagoya, Japan
7. Dai Junhu, Wang Mengmai and Wang Huanjiong. 2010. The 11th Cross-strait Symposium on Environment, Resource and Ecological Conservation. Climate change and potential effects on vegetations of Borderland among Shaanxi and Gansu Provinces, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. Dec. 13-14, 2010, Hong Kong, China.
8. Dai Junhu, Mengmai Wang and Xiao Shufang. 2010. Climate change and potential effects on vegetations of Borderland among Shaanxi and Gansu Provinces, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. NSFC-RFBR Workshop on Vegetation of the Subarid Regions: ecological gradients, spatial patterns, and climatically induced trends. Aug. 19-21, 2010, Novosibirsk, Russia
9. Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu, Zheng Jingyun, et al. The relationship between global warming and plant second bloom revealed by the phenological observations in China. 18th International Congress of Biometeorology. Sept. 22-26, 2008. Tokyo, Japan
10. Dai Junhu, Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun and Zhong Shuying. 2005. An analysis on the relationship between recent warming and plants phenology in Beijing. 17th International Congress of Biometeorology. Sept. 5-9, 2005, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
11. Dai Junhu, Wang Mengmai, and Ge Quansheng. 2008. Climatic changes and their effects on occurrence of pollen allergy in Beijing. Workshop on Environmental Change and Health Security in Beijing-Tianjin Urban Area. Oct. 6-7, 2008, Beijing, China
12. Dai Junhu, Ge Quansheng and Pan Yuan. 2006. Carbon storage changes caused by arable land use change from 1988 to 1995. International Conference on Regional Carbon Budgets (区域碳收支国际研讨会). Aug. 16-18, 2006, Beijing, China
13. Ge Quansheng, Dai Junhu, He Fanneng, and Pan Yuan. 2006. Land-use/land-cover change and possible effects on carbon storage in China during the last 300 years. International Conference on Regional Carbon Budgets (区域碳收支国际研讨会). Aug. 16-18, 2006, Beijing, China
14. Dai Junhu, Ge Quansheng, He Fanneng and Zheng Jingyun. 2006. Conference on Historical Climate Simulations Over East China. Sept. 17, 2006, Beijing, China
15. Dai Junhu, Ge Quansheng, He Fanneng, Zheng Jingyun, Pan Yuan.. 2003. The cultivation change and its effects on carbon storage in East China during the past 300 years. Land Open Science Conference-Integrated Research on Coupled Human-Environment Systems. Dec. 1-5, 2003, Morelia, Mexico

Collaboration

Collaboration institutions in recent year include the following: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Far-Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences; Department of Geography, Kent State University, Ohio, USA; Geography and Planning Department, UNIVERSIDAD DE CANTABRIA, Spain; World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya;Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University; Peking University;Beijing Normal University;Fudan University, Northwest University et al.


Students

已指导学生

邵力阳  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

肖树芳  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

王梦麦  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

王焕炯  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

王红丽  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

陶泽兴  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

宋文静  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

王焕炯  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

徐韵佳  硕士研究生  070601-气象学  

臧雅琼  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

陶泽兴  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

黄文婕  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

郑丰谊  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

现指导学生

朱梦瑶  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

徐韵佳  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

胡植  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

周宇  硕士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

高新月  博士研究生  070501-自然地理学  

Major Research Grands in Recent Years

  • The National Key Research & Development Program of China: The response mechanism of Chinese vegetation phenology to global change and trend for future phenological shifts (approval number: 2018YFA0606100; 2018-2023); Being the Principal Investigator.
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC): Seasonal shifts of temperate steppe phenology in Inner Mongolia and regional differences (Approval number: 41771056, 2018.01-2021.12); Being the Principal Investigator.
  • Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China: Proofs for Vegetation Changes at the Borderland among Shaanxi and Gansu Provinces, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (BSGNAR) during the Past 2000 Years (Approval Number: 411710432012-2015);  Being the Principal Investigator.
  • Key Technologies Research and Development Program: Fragile Ecosystem Restoration and Regional Sustainable Development in the Sanjiangyuan (Three Rivers’ Source Zone) Region (Approval Number: 2009BAC61B05) 
  • The Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences: Study on the relationship between changes of East Asian Monsoon and human activities during diagnostic periods (Approval Number: KZCX2-YW-315-4) 
  • Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China: Formation Mechanism for the Ecological Patterns of Vegetation Island on Liupan Mountains (Approval Number: 40471047,2005-2007) 
  • Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China: Vegetation Patterns, Dynamics and the Interrelationship among these factors and Climatic Change in Borderland among Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia (Approval Number: 40871033,2009-2011) 
  • Project of Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research: Phenological Observation and Climate changes in Key Regions of China (2007-2008) 
  • Project of Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research: Adjustment of Observation Principles for China’s Phenological Observation Network (2009-1011) 

Research Interests

Main research interests focus on: plant phenology and phenological changes in China, plant geography with emphasis on regional plants flora investigations, vegetation and landscape ecology mainly concern about regional vegetation distribution patterns and the structure of landscape, global climatic change and response of terrestrial ecosystems